Forest fires predicted in El Nino aftermath for 2024

A warm weather event is already pumping up the heat in the Pacific Ocean, heating the planet on a global scale amid the ongoing struggle against climate change.

Unlike Elton finishing his farewell tour, there is no sign of El Niño retiring.

Deemed the most intense fluctuation in our climate system, she is set to cook up a storm in 2024.

According to BBC News, US scientists have confirmed that El Niño has begun, and 2024 will likely be the world’s hottest year in its aftermath.

There is concern that in her latest reign, the world will surpass the 1.5C warming milestone already reached.

El Nino and her bipolar weather moods will likely result in dry conditions in some areas of the world and more rain in others.

This could have a devastating impact on the planet as a collective, as droughts may rise in Australia, leading to forest fires and a decline in wildlife habitat. Not to mention affecting the rain in South America and India’s monsoon.

El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. It occurs irregularly every few years and can significantly impact global weather patterns. El Niño events contribute to increased global temperatures due to the release of stored heat from the ocean into the atmosphere.

El Niño and her bipolar weather moods will likely result in dry temperatures in some areas and an increase in rain in others.

The weather event will likely continue until Spring next year, after which the effects will cease but leave devastation in its wake.

The UK Met Office has been tracking El Niño for some time and predicted that the event would start in the Pacific Ocean. Adam Scaife, head of long-range predictions at the UK Met Office, explains, “It’s ramping up now, there have been signs in our predictions for several months, but it’s really looking like it will peak at the end of this year in terms of its intensity”.

The warm weather event is properly named El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, and has three different temperature phases in its cycle; hot, cold or neutral.

The hot phase occurs only once every two to seven years when warm waters surface in South America, which then spreads across the ocean, increasing the heat in the atmosphere.

2016, the world’s hottest year on record, was due to the aftermath of an El Niño event the previous year.

The global impact of a hot phase on this scale has resulted in precautions being in place to track the early stages of its cycle. However, all parts of the world have different ways to monitor these changes.

BBC News states that scientists in the US define an average monthly increase of 0.5C in ocean temperature with the atmosphere responding to the rise and evidence that the temperature is ongoing as a clear indication that El Niño may be on the horizon.

Following these observations, conditions in May this year indicated the weather phase was returning.

Michelle L’Heureux, a scientist with the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration NOAA, stated, “This is a very weak signal, but we believe that we’re starting to see these conditions and that they will continue to intensify. Our weekly value is actually 0.8C this past week, which is even stronger.”

Researchers believe that there’s an 84% chance temperatures may exceed moderate strength by the end of 2023, with a one in four chance of exceeding the current milestone of 2C. If predictions are correct, this could lead the way to a “super El Niño”.

Talk about being a hothead. A super El Niño would be off the scale!

Although the initial effects will be slightly delayed, they will still be felt globally.

Predictions are that these effects will include drier weather conditions with drought risks. If we are to learn from previous years’ effects of the hot phase, there will be a significant human and economic cost to this upcoming hot phase.

$5 trillion was the cost of an El Niño event back in 1197-1998, a catastrophe for the economy, and more importantly, the disastrous weather phase was responsible for 23,000 deaths from storms and floods that year.

The earth’s temperature has changed significantly since climate change became a real problem (because it is real, folks!), with temperatures sitting around 1.1C higher than in the 20th century.

The upcoming El Niño wave has the potential to add 0.2C to that figure, breaking all global temperature records and plunging the world into unknown territory.

Adam Scaife concludes, “A new record for global temperature next year is definitely plausible. It depends how big the El Niño turns out to be – a big El Niño at the end of this year, gives a high chance that we will have a new record, global temperature in 2024.”

Preparation is critical when dealing with a global crisis. Preventive measures should be implemented sooner rather than later to help ease the blow of the warm weather phenomenon.

Record-breaking temperatures will put us at risk of exceedingly dry weather conditions.

Droughts will be detrimental to farmers across the UK. Livestock will take priority for the water supply, and crops will fail, devastatingly affecting farmers’ livelihoods and the economy.


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This article is accredited to Lauren Breslin. Lauren is the Marketing Executive and Results Manager at Tuffa UK Ltd.